FIFA Updates

In last week’s comments, Oto Michels wrote in to request a discussion of the Bundesliga clubs in Europe, including their signings, tactics, and chances of winning continental trophies. It was a good idea, and will be the main topic of this and next week’s editions. A week from today, we’ll have an overview of the Europa League contenders. For now, let’s take a closer look at the Champions League teams, Bayern, Schalke, and Bremen.

Bayern Munich:

Having reached last year’s final, Bayern have to be considered legitimate contenders to go deep into the Champions League. Arjen Robben remains a Ballon d’Or contender, and for me, Bastian Schweinsteiger is the most complete central midfielder on the planet. Factor in the big-game brilliance of Philipp Lahm and fierce leadership of Mark van Bommel, and the team has an outstanding core.

With all that having been said, I just can’t see this team winning the Champions League. Bayern four major issues that have yet to be resolved, and they may prove costly:

1) Goalkeeping: Hans-Joerg Butt may be a good reaction goalkeeper, but as Germany fans will have noticed from his performance against Uruguay, the veteran offers little quality in distributing from the back. His clearances often fail to reach the halfway line, and that can be fatal for a team that struggles in defence.

2) Central defence: Rest assured – Daniel van Buyten will not play much this year. Holger Badstuber will return to his natural central defensive position, and will partner either Martin Demichelis (likely) or Breno (a long shot). Demichelis defends well on the regular, but is too prone to making disastrous (and hilarious) mistakes. If not for Robben’s heroics, he would have been crucified for his blunders against Manchester United. In my opinion, for Bayern to have a chance at winning the Champions League, Breno will have to have a breakthrough year. Only 20 years of age, he’s a top talent, but needs some nurturing under van Gaal. It’s a shame he was injured for most of his loan spell at Nuernberg.

3) Left back: Following the ending of talks with Fabio Coentrao and Gregory van der Wiel, it seems that coach Louis van Gaal prefers to use youngster Diego Contento as a regular starter. Contento was impressive in limited playing time last year, and van Gaal has a knack for spotting promising young talent, so perhaps the situation is not so bleak after all. However, if Contento fails to shine, the team will be in deep trouble. His backup options include Edson Braafheid and Danijel Pranjic (both of whom failed to impress last year), as well as reserve goalkeeper Thomas Kraft, and fitness coach Marcelo Martins.

4) Central attack: At the tip of attack, Bayern just don’t have enough. Miroslav Klose is a world class player, but only for Germany, and only at major tournaments. He no longer has the ability to last for an entire season. Mario Gomez’s ego has been so shattered that he can hardly touch a ball without giving it to a defender. Ivica Olic is a great workhorse, but when you compare him with recent Champions League-winning strikers (Diego Milito, Samuel Eto’o, Wayne Rooney), he just doesn’t offer the same goal-scoring quality. He’s useful against attacking teams that allow him the chance to run into free space, but against a strictly defensive team like Inter, Olic has little to offer.

y, it appears that Bayern have chosen not to make any new signings. Two years ago, they did the same thing, and were outclassed by Barcelona. We won’t see Christian Lell facing Lionel Messi this year, but still, you have to think that the Champions League title just isn’t on the minds of the Bayern board members. Barca had a great team last year and still chose to buy the world’s best striker, David Villa. If van Gaal is interested in emulating the Catalans, he’d do himself a favour by requesting a few transfers.

With all that having been said, there is some hope for Bayern. If Contento, Badstuber and either Breno or Demichelis develop a good partnership, that’s a start. But still, the team will need much, much more. It’s a long shot, but Thomas Mueller could develop into more of a centre forward, with Toni Kroos (whose long-ranged shooting and set piece delivery could be decisive against defensive teams) in the playmaker’s role. Bayern would have to play quickly in transition, but the team has players (read: Robben, Mueller, Franck Ribery) with the capacity to strike with lethal efficiency. Such a strategy would not be without precedent: for several years, Man Utd have managed to play well without using a penalty box poacher.

Schalke:

This is a team that, depending on the draw, can win its group. Schalke’s seeding (the 35th-ranked team in Europe) might have been a pitfall, but thanks to some abnormalities in the way several European leagues concluded (like Bursaspor winning the Turkish league and Sampdoria finishing fourth in Italy), Schalke will be a “Pot 3” team, regardless of the outcome of the remaining qualifiers. They won’t avoid any heavyweights, but may have some minnows to pick on in their group.

For many teams, the start of the Champions League in mid-September is too early, especially on a World Cup year. Schalke, who had only Manuel Neuer, Joel Matip, and new signing Erik Jendrisek at the summer tournament, have had an impressive pre-season, winning all seven of their recent matches. Coach Felix Magath is legendary for his ability to quickly bring his teams to top form and fitness, and may catch his opponents in a state of post-World Cup lethargy.

In Neuer, Rafinha, Christoph Metzelder, Benedikt Hoewedes and Lukas Schmitz, Magath has a first-rate defence. Playmaker Ivan Rakitic is finally making good on his potential, and with the imminent transfer of Raul, Magath will have a world-class (though ageing) striker in his line-up. Having earned 15 and 18 scorer’s points in his first and second seasons in Germany, respectively, Jefferson Farfan remains a threat as his club’s most reliable scorer.

Word on the street is that Magath would like to use a 4-4-2 diamond setup, with Rakitic as the #10. In that case, he will have to choose either Raul or Farfan to occupy one of the centre forward positions.

If Magath opts to use a 4-3-3 or (more likely) a 4-2-3-1 formation, Farfan will be able to play on the right wing, with Raul in the centre. In the case of a 4-2-3-1, Schalke can play with the style (if not the effectiveness) of Jose Mourinho’s Inter. Magath is a huge fan of defensive football punctuated with counter-attacks, and in theory, he could use Rakitic in the Wesley Sneijder role, Farfan in Samuel Eto’o’s position and Raul as a more mobile version of Diego Milito.

In all likelihood, Magath will rotate his team on a regular basis, either by tactical choice or as a matter of necessity – few mortals can keep up with his training without the occasional day off. Farfan will get his time, Raul will have his, and the dozen or so defensive players on the Schalke roster will rotate as well.

only cause for concern in this side is the quality in its central midfield. Magath doesn’t really have a complete central midfielder who can both win the ball and distribute it reliably. Nonetheless, for the coach’s preferred style, the team should be well prepared for the Champions League.

Let’s also not forget that Schalke are reported to have another €30m to spend on transfers, and with Magath at the helm, have enough leverage to attract top talent. Raul may be just the beginning. If Magath could come close to winning the Bundesliga with last year’s squad, imagine what he can do in Europe with this year’s improvements.

With all things considered, depending on the draw, I can see this team repeating the success of 2008 and reaching the quarter-finals.

Werder Bremen:

They may have finished third in the Bundesliga, but Bremen are better seeded than Schalke, and that will be a huge advantage. Should they win their play-off match, Thomas Schaaf’s side will be drawn from Pot 2, and will avoid the likes of Milan, Lyon, Real Madrid and Roma.

This side certainly has the potential to advance to the round of 16, but will have more difficulty doing so than will their fellow Bundesliga sides. It usually takes more time for attacking sides to find their form, and Schaaf’s team knows nothing other than to go forward. That fact has been underlined by this summer’s signings of attackers Marko Arnautovic and Felix Kroos, with no consideration given to a solution for the team’s left-back problem.

What’s more, out-and-out attacking sides rarely succeed in what has become a rather conservative Champions League. Those that do (like Barcelona and Bayern) need to play a possession-based game so as not to be caught out on the counter-attack. Bremen try to play with the classic Dutch style of utilizing a high offside trap and clever through balls, but lack the possession-maintaining aptitude to avoid being hit on the break. It may not be a cause for much concern against the Bundesliga’s lesser teams, but Bremen’s open invitation for opponents to counter-attack will not be too good for Champions League teams to refuse. It was their downfall against Valencia in last year’s Europa League round of 16, and may well be the same in 2010-11.

This is not to say that Bremen lack quality. Last year, Mesut Oezil, Marko Marin and Claudio Pizarro proved they could match Valencia’s David Villa, David Silva and Juan Mata in an all-out slugfest. Certainly, the signing of Arnautovic (who is meant to provide competition for striker Hugo Almeida, but can also play as a winger) can only boost the team’s attacking potential.

In central midfield, Philipp Bargfrede is a rising talent, and skipper while Torsten Frings may be nearing 34 years of age, he remains one of the Bundesliga’s best players in his position.

At the back, Tim Wiese is an excellent goalkeeper, while central defenders Naldo and Per Mertesacker are hit or miss. The pair played brilliantly for much of last autumn’s campaign, but then fell apart around the winter break. Their form will be crucial throughout the group stage, because if they fail to position themselves correctly, the duo will not have the pace to catch up to their opponents. Full-back Clemens Fritz will be influential in linking with winger Marin on the right flank, and Aaron Hunt will rue the fact that he does not have a similarly skilled attacking full-back on his side.

problem Schaaf’s men face is less of personnel and more of tactics. Under the current coach, good Bremen teams have historically failed in the Champions League, primarily due to their commitment to attack in a tournament that does not favor such a style of play. Bremen are much more suitable for the more openly played Europa League, wherein (along with its predecessor, the UEFA Cup), the team has had much success in recent years.

As always, it depends on the draw, but I can see this team finishing third in their group and going so far as to win the Europa League. Of course, this prediction is contingent on Bremen retaining the services of Oezil and Mertesacker. In the likely event that either leaves, all bets are off.

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